Graham’s 10 Point Checklist

1. An earnings-to-price yield at least twice the AAA bond rate.
2. P/E ratio less than 40% of the highest P/E ratio the stock had over the past 5 years.
3. Dividend yield of at least 2/3 the AAA bond yield.
4. Stock price below 2/3 of tangible book value per share.
5. Stock price below 2/3 of Net Current Asset Value (NCAV).
6. Total debt less than book value.
7. Current ratio great than 2.
8. Total debt less than 2 times Net Current Asset Value (NCAV).
9. Earnings growth of prior 10 years at least at a 7% annual compound rate.
10. Stability of growth of earnings in that no more than 2 declines of 5% or more in year end earnings in the prior 10 years are permissible.

Short Term and Long Term

Short term= Emotions
Long term= Earnings

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Short term= Price
Long term= Value

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Short term= Speculative returns
Long term= Investment returns

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Short term= News
Long term= Wisdom

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Short term= Trading
Long term= Investing

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Short term= Gain or loss
Long term= Gain

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Short term= Quarterly earnings
Long term=10 year Averages

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Short term=Daily NAV
Long term = Retirement NAV

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Short term= Volatility
Long term= Secular growth

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Short term= Newspapers
Long Term = Books

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Short term = Luck
Long term = Discipline

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Short term = Skill
Long term = Behaviour

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Short term= Predictions
Long term = Financial History

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Short term= TIP
Long term= SIP

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Short term = Timing
Long term = Time

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Short term= Bank as an advisor
Long term = Wise Wealth Advisors

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Short term : < 10 years

Long term : = > 10 years

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Short term = Anxiety

Long term = Peace of mind

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Short term = Activity

Long term = Inactivity

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Short term = Tension

Long term = Conviction

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Short term = Quick money

Long term = Sustainable wealth

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Short term = Unsteady
Long term = Sit tight

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Short term = Book profits
Long term = Build fortune

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Short term = More chances of failure
Long term = Sure success

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Short term = Constant looking of ticker tape
Long term = Annual review

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Short term = Expensive
Long term = Less expensive

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Short term = Impulsive
Long term = Planning

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Short term = More taxes
Long term = Tax free

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Short term = Economic Times
Long term = Buffett’s annual letters

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Short term = Sudarshan Sukhani
Long term = Prashanth Jain

Lessons From John Templeton

Lessons From John Templeton

1. “I never ask if the market is going to go up or down, because I don’t know, and besides it doesn’t matter. I search nation after nation for stocks, asking: Where is the one that is lowest priced in relation to what I believe its worth?” Like every other great investor in this series of blog posts John did do not make bets based on macroeconomic predictions. What some talking head may say about markets as a whole going up or down was simply not relevant in his investing.  John focused on companies and not macro markets. He was a staunch value investor who once said: “The best book ever written [was Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham].

 2. “If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.  I’ve found my results for investment clients were far better here [in the Bahamas] than when I had my office in 30 Rockefeller Plaza.  When you’re in Manhattan, it’s much more difficult to go opposite the crowd.”  The mathematics of investing dictate that investing with the crowd means you will earn zero alpha, because the crowd is the market.  You must sometimes be willing to take a position that is different from the crowd and be right about that position, to earn alpha. John put it this way: “If you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you will have the same results as everyone else.” 

 3. “The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.  Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.  People are always asking me: where is the outlook good, but that’s the wrong question…. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable? For those properly prepared in advance, a bear market in stocks is not a calamity but an opportunity.”   To be able to sell when people are most pessimistic requires courage.  Being courageous is easier if you are making bets with “house money.” Making bets with the rent money is always unwise.  Templeton believed problems create opportunity. For example, it was on the day that Germany invaded Poland that he saw one of his best buying opportunities since prices were so low and values so high.  Simply telling his broker that day to buy every stock selling under $1 yielded a 4X return for John. 

 4. “Sell when you find a much better bargain to replace what you are selling. The time to buy a stock is when the short-term owners have finished selling and the time to sell a stock is often when short-term owners have finished their buying.” This to me is about doing an opportunity cost analysis. He once put it this way in three words: “Buy cheap stocks.” John was also a big believer in investing globally: “If you search worldwide, you will find more bargains—and possibly better bargains—than in any single nation.” 

5. “Focus on value because most investors focus on outlooks and trends.  You must be a fundamentalist to be really successful in the market.”When you focus on value, you are dealing with the simplest systems possible and that makes alpha achievable. In his book The Signal & the Noise Nate Silver wrote: “The more complex you make the model the worse the forecast gets.” In addition, the more complex the system(s) involved the more worthless the forecast gets.

 6. “Experience teaches us that one of the most common errors in selecting stocks for purchase, or for sale, is the tendency to emphasize only the most obvious factor; namely the temporary outlook for sales and profits of the company.” Markets fluctuate for many reasons that are not rational. They “just do that sometimes “in the short run.  By investing for the long term you harness mean reversion, which is powerful force to have on your side. 

 7. “The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘this time it’s different.’” As the market approaches a bubble you inevitably hear that something that has been true is not true anymore. The appearance of this phrase in the mouths of promoters is a sign that Mr. Market is euphoric. 

 8.  “In my 45-year career as an investment counselor, humility did show me the need for worldwide diversification to reduce risk. That career did help me to become more and more humble because statistics showed that when I advised a client to buy one stock to replace another, about one-third of the time the client would have done better to ignore my advice. The only investors who shouldn’t diversify are those who are right 100 percent of the time.”

9. “Successful investing is only common sense. Each system for investing will eventually become obsolete.” There is academic work which shows that any system which may deliver alpha gets eaten by competition as time passes.

 10. “An investor who has all the answers doesn’t even understand the questions. …success is a process of continually seeking answers to new questions.” Humility is a theme in accounts of Templeton. ”A cocksure approach to investing will lead, probably sooner than later, to disappointment if not outright disaster.”

 11.  Keep in mind the wise words of Lucien Hooper, a Wall Street legend: “What always impresses me,” he wrote, “is how much better the relaxed, long-term owners of stock do with their portfolios than the traders do with their switching of inventory. The relaxed investor is usually better informed and more understanding of essential values; he is more patient and less emotional; he pays smaller capital gains taxes; he does not incur unnecessary brokerage commissions; and he avoids behaving like Cassius by ‘thinking too much.’” Self-explanatory and I’m at my 999 word limit.

 12.  “I can sum up my message by reminding you of Will Rogers’ famous advice. ‘Don’t gamble,’ he said. ‘Buy some good stock. Hold it till it goes up… and then sell it. If it doesn’t go up, don’t buy it!’”

10 Things to Complete before you become NRI

10 Things to Complete before you become NRI

Are you leaving India in next few months or planning to move abroad sometime in future? Then you should be clear with a few points you should complete before you become an NRI. A lot of NRI readers come up with various issues they face, because they never thought about completing few tasks which could have saved them from lots of worries and paperwork. Lets look at 10 things which a person should complete before he/she becomes a NRI (Non resident Indian)

10 things to complete before you become NRI and Leave India

1. Take a Term Insurance

One of the big issues NRI’s face is taking a term plan through a Indian insurance company. It’s always a good idea to take a term plan and then leave the country, otherwise later it gets really tough to get a term plan, for which you will have to visit India and also it also gets quite difficult to opt for online term plan.

So before you become a NRI (Non Resident Indian) , complete this step. The premiums you will pay will be lower.
2. Take Health Insurance

Just like term plans, it’s tough to get health insurance once you become a NRI. After becoming a NRI, you will have to visit India for  health checkups and there is more documentation and hassles in the process. Health Insurance is something, you should take anyways , so why wait? Just take it anyway.

3. Open PPF Account

NRIs cant open a fresh PPF account, so before you become a NRI and leave India, open a PPF account. You can open PPF account in ICICI bank, SBI bank or at the Post office. NRI’s can always invest money in their existing PPF account which was already opened by them before leaving India.

4. Convert your Saving bank account into NRO account

A lot of people leave India only to realize later, that they need to open a NRO account in India, and then get into the whole process. Rather than doing it later, why not convert your existing saving bank account into NRO account just before leaving India?  NRIs can deposit all the Indian income into their NRO account and also make payments like EMI payments, and other kind of investments from their NRO account. All it takes is 2 photographs, and a copy of your passport and visa.

5. Connect your Loan Account with your banking account for online payment

A lot of people who become NRI (Non Resident Indian), have a home loan running, for which they have to still pay EMI’s . At times, they want to prepay home loan as fast as possible, because they earn more money outside India. But then the issue is – how to make prepayment when they are outside India? The best option here, is to connect your home loan account with your bank account, so that you can make prepayment to your home loan using NEFT transfer.  Its a good idea to do this before your leave India and try some prepayment just to make sure it works. It might happen that you might need to visit the bank for this, so better complete this before you leave India.

6. Prepare a Power of Attorney 

There can be many things which require your presence in India after you have become an NRI, like if you want to make any real estate transaction or want to operate your bank account etc. It’s always a good idea to have a bit of foresight  and see if you might want to prepare a power of attorney. Power of attorney is a legal way of giving power to someone to act on your behalf. Just choose some trusted family person or a friend. You can also make a power of attorney which expires at some stipulated time.

7. Make your mutual funds accounts online

A lot of people still want to transact in mutual funds after they become NRI, but they have no easy way out at that time. It’s always a great idea to make sure that you open a online account for mutual fund investing while you are in India. For this, you can open a online account with the respective mutual fund AMC’s or the best thing you can do is to open account with FundsIndia. They support indian as well as NRI investors.

8. Open a NRE account 

If you want to invest your earnings into India and want to get it back in the foreign country (repatriation) , then you would need a NRE account. You can not deposit the local money like interest from FD, rental income etc into the NRE account. So if you have this kind of requirement, then better open a NRE account. The Fixed Deposits rates on NRE accounts are quite attractive in Indian Banks.

9. Sell your shares and open a new NRI demat account

Once you become an NRI, you will not be able to sell off your existing demat account shares which you bought before becoming a NRI. You can open & operate a NRI demat account. So before you become an NRI, a good idea is to sell off the existing shares and take back the money or the another option is to open a NRI demat account and transfer your existing stocks to this new account.

10. Update your KYC 

There are different processes for residents and NRIs for various kind of financial products. Like, if you become an NRI and want to do something with banks, mutual funds, life insurance policies (traditional or ULIPs), you will first have to update your KYC and only then can you do something. So its always a good idea to update your KYC, before you become an NRI. This will save you with lots of hassles.

Conclusion

If you follow these 10 things before you become an NRI, you will have a really peaceful time abroad and will not have to get involved into the mess of completing the things, most NRIs miss. While you might be excited to go abroad, better not miss out on these points.

Are you planning to leave India and become NRI Soon ?

WHAT IS A CIRCUIT FILTER?

How a Circuit Filter Prevents a Burnout

NSE suspended trading for 15 minutes on October 5 after its benchmark Nifty index fell 15% following punching errors worth 650 crore by a dealer at domestic brokerage Emkay Global. Trading halted after a lower circuit breaker kicked in. Apart from the brokerage, which was the worst hit, those who traded without stop losses were also affected. The situation could have been worse but for the filter. Ram Sahgal explains how does the circuit-filter mechanism works:

WHAT IS A CIRCUIT FILTER?    
It is a regulator prescribed price limit on stock indices. It sets a  limit on the extent to which an index such as Nifty or Sensex can fluctuate in a day. The filter, followed by a cooling-off period, kicks in once an index rises or falls by 10%, 15% and 20%. For instance, if a circuit limit of 10% is hit before 1’o clock in the noon, trading automatically stops and resumes after an hour. In case of a 20% movement of the index, trading is halted for the remainder of the day.

WHAT’S ITS PURPOSE?    
A filter or breaker aims to limit the spread of marketwide panic by giving participants time to gather their wits. The moment a circuit filter is triggered on the cash segment, trading comes to an automatic halt. In the case of index futures, trading does not halt automatically but has to be stopped after trading on the cash segment ceases.

HOW ARE FILTER PERCENTAGES SET?    
The filter percentages are calculated on the closing index value of the previous quarter. In the case of Nifty, for the October-December quarter, the daily filter is set based on the index closing on the last trading day of the September quarter (which was 5700 points on September 28). So to calculate the 10% filter percentage for Thursday (October 11), add and subtract 570 (10% of 5700) to Nifty’s Wednesday’s closing of 5620 (5652 +/- 570) to get 6,222 as the upper limit and 5082 as the lower limit.

WHY DID NSE RESUME TRADING IN 15 MINUTES ON OCTOBER 5?    
Friday’s trades were not the result of panic but of human error. Once the reason for the Nifty’s fall was identified, the system did not accept any fresh orders. Only the existing ones had to be matched to prevent trade integrity issues from cropping up. Trading resumed normally with Nifty having recovered shortly after the 15.5% fall.

DOES A CIRCUIT FILTER APPLY TO SHARES?    
Circuit breakers are only for indices. The regulator has a ‘price band’ for shares in the cash segment and an 'operating range' for the futuresand-options segment. Individual stocks have a price band of 20%; that is, a stock cannot fluctuate more than 20% from its previous day’s closing. An exchange is allowed to reduce this band to 10%. F&O stocks have operating ranges, again at 20%; that is, an order cannot be placed by a trader above or below the 20% limit. The absence of a price band caused certain frontline Nifty stocks to drop below 20% on October 5 because of Emkay’s erroneous trades.

WAS TRADING EVER HALTED FOR THE WHOLE SESSION?    
Yes. On May 18, 2009, after both Nifty and Sensex hit the 20% upper circuit following the UPA's victory in the general elections.

Eight mistakes to avoid while investing

Eight mistakes to avoid while investing
Investing is not just about picking winners, but also about avoiding mistakes. Retail investors can be better off if they avoid making the following mistakes.

1. Overconfidence - Don't be unrealistically optimistic A bull market makes retail investors believe that they are geniuses - after all, anything they put money into goes up. This overconfidence in their own abilities leads to a complete disregard of the risks involved. Every new generation that invests in the market ignores past experience. These new investors wrongly believe that stock prices only go up. Don't be overconfident and don't start believing that you have superior skills compared to the market. Recognise that in a bull market you are benefiting because the whole market is going up. If those around you are getting unrealistically optimistic, start managing your risk accordingly. Remember that sometimes markets do come crashing down.

2. Over enthusiasm to trade - Not every ball should be hit Good batsmen realise that some balls outside the off-stump should be left alone. Similarly, professional investors realise that sometimes its better to just stand still than to rush into a stock. Retail investors often make the mistake of "flashing outside the off-stump" because they cannot resist the temptation to trade in every opportunity. And, like an inexperienced batsman, they suffer the same fate. Too much trading will lead to a lot of churn, extra commissions to your broker and huge tax implications for you. Some of the world's best investors follow a buy and hold strategy - you should too.

3. Missing the benefits of compounding of capital - Learn from Einstein Albert Einstein is reputed to have said that compounding of capital is the 8th wonder of the world because it allows for the systematic accumulation of wealth. Even though any one in class 5 could tell you how compounding works, retail investors ignore this basic concept. Compounding of capital can benefit you only if you leave your money uninterrupted for a long period of time. The sooner you start investing, the bigger the pool of capital you will end up with for your middleaged and retirement years. Don't wait to start investing only when you have a large amount of money to put to work. Start early, even if it's with a small amount. Watch this grow to a very large amount with the passage of time.

4. Worrying about the market - But there is no answer to your favourite question Smart investors don't worry about the direction of the market - they worry about the business prospects of the companies whose stocks they own. Retail investors are obsessed with the question "Where do you think the market will go?" This is a wrong question to ask. In fact, no one knows the answer. The right question to ask is whether the company, whose stock you are buying, is going to be a much bigger business 10 years from now or not? Don't take a view on the market, take a view on long-term industry trends and how your chosen companies can create value by exploiting these trends.

5. Timing the market - Around 99% of investors will fail in this strategy Its very difficult to time the market, i.e, be smart enough to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top. Professionals understand that timing the market is a wasted exercise. Retail investors always wait for that elusive best opportunity to get in or to get out. But by waiting they let great investment opportunities go by. You should use systematic or regular investment plans to make investments. You'll have to make fewer decisions and yet can accumulate substantial wealth over time.

6. Selling in times of panic - You should be doing the opposite The best opportunity to buy is when the markets are falling and there is fear in the minds of investors. Yet, many retail investors do exactly the opposite. They sell when the markets are falling and buy only when the markets are high. This way they end up losing twice - by selling low and buying high, when they should be doing exactly the opposite. If nothing has changed about the long-term outlook for the company that you own, then you should not sell this company's stock. Use this opportunity to buy more of the same stock in falling markets. Some of the world's biggest fortunes were made by buying when others were selling in panic. Focusing on past performance - Its like driving forward while looking backwards It is a very common perception that because a stock has done well in the past one year, it's the best stock to invest in. Retail investors do not realise that often the best performers will underperform the market in the future because their optimistic outlook has already been priced into the stock. Don't go after hot sectors that are currently producing high returns. Don't let greed drive your investment decisions. Look forward to see whether the gains produced in the past can get repeated or not. Short-term trends of the past might not get repeated in the future.

7. Diversifying too much will kill you - Investing is all about staying alive Beyond a point, having too many names in a portfolio can be counterproductive. You might end up duplicating, or end up taking too much exposure to a sector. Over-diversification can upset your portfolio, especially when you have not done enough research on all the companies you have invested in. If you are an active investor in the stock market, maintain a manageable portfolio of 15-25 names. Instead of adding new names to this portfolio, recognise ideal ones. Then back them with more capital. In the longrun, this will produce better returns for you than adding another 20 names to your portfolio.

8. Investing is all is about patience and discipline. By avoiding mistakes you can improve the long-term performance of your portfolio, whatever the economic conditions prevailing in the market. Courtesy: 

Volatile, risky, range-bound: Experts use these 3 stock market terms very commonly. But it means little for the retail investor

This article was published in Business Standard newspaper dated August 16, 2012.
Volatile, risky, range-bound: Experts use these 3 stock market terms very commonly. But it means little for the retail investor.
If an alien chanced upon popular stock market lingo, it could be forgiven if it concluded stock markets are a branch of zoology, as the talk would be liberally peppered with terms such as bulls, bears, butterfly spreads, etc.

Besides these, it might also be perplexed by three seemingly inexplicable terms which pop up constantly. These are:

The stock market is very volatile: So, what is this volatility? While there is a volatility index with the National Stock Exchange, the term is used loosely, without taking the index numbers into account. And, does it mean that returns will rise or fall? Few experts have an answer.

Given the fear instilled in investors about volatility, they often tend to see this oscillation more as a threat than an opportunity. Hence, the term 'volatility' is often used with a negative, rather than positive, connotation. It is said: "Fortune favours the prepared mind". So, too, investors who undertake the pain of unearthing good stocks through research, actually welcome volatile times, as sudden and sharp rallies and depressions in stock prices provide exit and entry opportunities.

In chemistry, any volatile compound often displays the tendency to evaporate into thin air. Can we extend this to imply that money invested in stock markets always vanishes into thin air? Hopefully not! What they may actually mean is that unlike other investment avenues such as fixed deposits or the Public Provident Fund, stock prices gyrate.

The stock market is very risky: This is an extension of the first term, and alludes to the danger of losing the money one has invested, due to a fall in stock prices. Sure, no one likes to lose money but any fall must be put into perspective. There are myriad examples of stocks falling in the short term and then going on to make new highs over a longer period of time. Investors must only fear permanent, and not temporary, loss of capital. In the Art of War, Sun Tzu has written "Every battle is won or lost before it is ever fought".

Similarly, undertaking the requisite due diligence before purchasing a stock will drastically reduce the chance of permanent loss. Just as in other things in life, stock market investing is a game of probabilities and one can improve one's chances of success by taking the right steps, rather than mindlessly purchasing a stock based on tips and hearsay. Other than this, investors also ignore the fact that the probability of capital loss is not zero even in sovereign bonds. The travails of investors in Greek bonds are a testimony to this. Also, loss of purchasing power due to inflation is an insidious way of losing money. Investors in government small savings schemes and bank fixed deposits face this risk.

The stock market is range-bound: This statement always tops the charts of 'market experts'. Fort-unately for them, this statement is like Lord Vishnu; it has no beginning and no end (although, theoretically, it is bounded by zero). Well, at any given point, the indices will always be in some range. This could be anything from one per cent to 50 per cent or even more. How does such a statement help the viewers/readers? Are they better off after listening to such a prognosis, than they were before? It is a mystery as to why such experts are rarely quizzed on what the so-called range actually is... few will have an answer.